Although the holiday season ended a few weeks ago, it seems we’ve received one final gift—an increase in first-year enrollment for Fall 2024. This is exciting news! In this issue, we explore the implications of relying on preliminary data for decision-making, along with expert predictions on how AI will shape higher education in 2025. We close with a look at the challenges states face when attempting to close or merge public colleges and universities to better align with shifting demands.  

After reading today’s issue, use the comments section to share your 2025 AI predictions for higher education. 

First-year Enrollment Actually Increased 

From How Did Enrollment Researchers Get It So Wrong? | Inside Higher Ed  

In October 2024, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported that Fall 2024 enrollment had decreased. However, citing a methodological error, they now state that enrollment actually increased.   

Our Thoughts 

While numerous higher education news outlets have covered the National Student Clearinghouse’s reporting error, I appreciate Inside Higher Ed’s deeper analysis of what happened. This article provides important context, highlighting the challenges and implications of relying on preliminary data to inform strategic decisions and public discourse. While unfortunate, this situation serves as a case study for institutions that depend on early or incomplete data when making critical decisions.  

Additionally, this misstep underscores NSC’s growing role as a key data provider for institutions and policymakers, particularly in the wake of COVID-19 and the looming demographic cliff. The demand for real-time insights is stronger than ever. Yet, we are hampered by the absence of a national student unit record system, a tool that many other countries with robust higher education sectors already have. If only the Higher Education Act didn’t explicitly prohibit the creation of such a system.  

I once read an article that claimed “data is the new oil.” While I’m not sure I fully agree, it’s clear that in today’s higher education landscape, data shapes institutional decision-making and public perception. Hopefully, this error was caught early enough to prevent widespread negative impacts. 

AI Impacts for 2025 

From 3 Areas Where AI Will Impact Higher Ed Most in 2025 | Campus Technology  

Higher education and ed tech industry leaders share their predictions on the three key areas where AI is expected to have the greatest impact in higher education in 2025.   

Our Thoughts 

Okay, it’s clear that some of these predictions were heavily influenced by marketing teams. There are also a few forecasts that seem so futuristic, like faculty creating individualized learning paths for each student, that I seriously doubt we’ll see them materialize in 2025 (or 2026, or even 2027). However, reading these predictions is still valuable for higher education professionals as we strive to stay ahead of the hype in our increasingly AI-driven world.  

There is one prediction, however, that I believe warrants serious consideration and planning as we move into 2025. Darren Catalano at HelioCampus highlights the importance of a robust semantic layer in leveraging AI to democratize data across campus. This is one area that I feel doesn’t receive enough attention in AI discussions.  

Like so many software applications, the effectiveness of AI depends on clean, reliable data as its foundation. It doesn’t matter if you have the most advanced chatbot to handle admissions inquiries. If that chatbot is trained on “dirty data,” the answers it provides will be incorrect. Perhaps 2025 will be the year institutions finally prioritize and fund data governance and data engineering initiatives to ensure AI projects are truly successful. Then AI can join the rest of us in debating the definition of a student. 😀 

The Challenge with Closing Public Institutions 

From As public colleges begin to merge or shut down, one state shows how hard it is | The Hechinger Report & Vermont Public Media  

Using Vermont’s public higher education system as a case study, the authors examine the challenges states face when closing or merging institutions.   

Our Thoughts  

While much of the media focus has been on small private colleges closing, this article highlights that public universities are not immune to these pressures. Vermont State University’s struggles reflect a broader national trend, where declining birth rates, evolving workforce demands, and political roadblocks are forcing institutions to make difficult decisions about mergers, program cuts, and operational efficiencies. Whether you work at a public or private institution, understanding these dynamics is critical for long-term planning.  

Beyond Vermont, the article illustrates how these same challenges are unfolding in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and beyond, emphasizing the deeply emotional and political nature of institutional closures and mergers. Colleges and universities, often seen as pillars of stability in their communities, have strong support from alumni, students, and local stakeholders, many of whom resist change even when financial realities make it unavoidable.  

This article underscores the importance of transparency, communication, and strategic planning in navigating institutional transformation. As more institutions face similar pressures, proactive leadership and clear engagement with stakeholders will be essential for ensuring sustainable solutions.